Stand Tall, Arnie!

Los Angeles Times: GOP Fears a Redistricting Backfire

Back to why Dems would be wise to back Arnold Schwarzenegger in his bid to push for a bi/nonpartisan redistricting commission:

National Republican Party leaders ? even Schwarzenegger's closest ally in the congressional delegation, U.S. Rep. David Dreier (R-San Dimas) ? are pressing the governor to exempt Congress from his map-making.

The fear is that tinkering with the California congressional boundaries could jeopardize Republican control of the U.S. House. By some estimates, the state's 20-person GOP congressional delegation opposes the governor's effort 4 to 1.

The Republican backlash underscores a reality of redistricting: What's most important to incumbents is ensuring their own survival. Even with California Republicans confined to minority status in both the legislative and congressional delegations, many members would rather keep the existing lines than gamble on a plan that could plunk them in unfriendly districts where they would have trouble getting reelected.

Schwarzenegger has made redistricting a centerpiece of his 2005 agenda, contending that the lines now drawn protect incumbents to such a degree that races are no longer competitive and parties stand virtually no chance of losing seats they control. He would sooner scuttle redistricting altogether than agree to a compromise in which Congress is spared, the governor's aides said recently.

...

He has been increasingly frustrated in his dealings with the Legislature, to the point where, aides say, he would like to recast the 120-member body so that centrists have a bigger voice. A common complaint about the Legislature is that it is polarized along ideological lines, with members so assured of winning reelection that they have little incentive to compromise or moderate their views.

...

"California now has more clout in the House of Representatives than at any time in previous history," said U.S. Rep. John T. Doolittle (R-Rocklin), referring to the committee chairmanships held by California Republicans.

"It would seem to me self-defeating if we set in motion forces that could result in the loss of seats in California, which in conjunction with a loss of a handful of seats elsewhere in the country could spell a return to the minority for Republicans in the House. I just don't think that's a risk worth taking."

Doolittle bristled at an argument made by proponents of new voting districts, who say that the move would bring more moderates into elective office.

"As a conservative Republican, it makes me very nervous when I hear people say that their overt objective is to remove the conservatives," Doolittle said. "I don't want to see that happen. I will fight to the death to make sure that does not happen."

Any fairminded proposal that puts that much fear into Doolittle's heart is something I can sympathize with. The irony is that I think there'd be very little difference in the Congressional makeup of CA after any lines were redrawn. Dreier is correct in being worried, however, has he's probably in one of the shakiest districts already.

I'm on the fence for waiting for 2010 on this to take effect. I mean, yeah, I think it's freakin hilarious that Ken Mehlman is whispering for that while he undoubtably took great pride in the number DeLay did down here in Texas. I think there's a case to be made for California to right the ship a bit sooner, though. So as a non-Californian, I'll remain on the sidelines of that detail. I'm in this for the long term, so if it kicks in for 2010, fine enough by me.

Oh, but there's more ...

Polling suggests the public isn't clamoring for new voting districts. A total of 44% supported the governor's redistricting plans in a survey last month by the Public Policy Institute of California; 41% were opposed and 15% voiced no opinion. Support broke down along party lines. Republicans back the governor's efforts; Democrats are opposed.

State Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata (D-Oakland) said Schwarzenegger's plan stands no chance of passing in the Legislature, and that the governor's only hope of getting reapportionment approved is to put an initiative on the ballot.

"This is a nonstarter here," Perata said. "Right now it's very tangential ? very much on the margin of what is troubling California. It won't improve traffic congestion. It won't arrest the skyrocketing cost of housing?. No one in my district gets up in the morning and makes coffee and says, 'What are we going to do with redistricting?' "

Gale Kaufman, a Democratic political consultant, said Schwarzenegger should shift his focus to wresting more federal money from Washington by tapping the clout of the California Republican delegation. Money matters are expected to be a central theme in a meeting that Schwarzenegger has arranged in Washington with members of Congress and legislative leaders for Feb. 17.

"We need desperately for him to work on these rather powerful Republican members of Congress to help us get our fair share of federal funding," said Kaufman, who oversaw Democratic Assembly campaigns in last year's elections.

What you just read there was the California Democratic Party shooting itself in the foot.

Repeatedly.

The partisan breakdown on the polling is also perilous. I think the GOP support that's there for it will likely come down as the far right tries to nationalize the concept and pitch the reform as a left-wing power grab. Yet unkown is whether there's any give on the Dem side to take off the blinders in thinking of this as a right-wing power grab. Partisanship sometimes does strange things to commonsense. But if there's not some movement on the part of Dems, I'd say that polling looks iffy for redistricting reform.

The commentary by Perata and Kaufman likely ought to be held up and viewed by any right thinking Democrat to seriously ask themselves if there's anything sensible they're seeing there. Typical parochial myopia if you ask me, and if the Democratic Party does take a nosedive in California, this bit of quotage is the embarrassing followup to the Gray Davis years in that story.

So right here and now, let me make one simple Democratic proposal:

Howard Dean, if you want to win me over, join forces with Arnold Schwarzenegger. Make the case for this reform. Lead the case nationally, take it state to state. And I'll start warming up to ya. It's as clear cut of a case of beneficial, progressive reform as there is on the table. It can be a winning national issue for whichever party picks up the ball and runs with it.

UPDATE: ONE DOWN!!!! Kevin Drum flip flops his way over to the Reform Caucus. That's one small step for California Democrats and one giant leap for progressive reform. Laddy? Ball's in your court now. ;-)

UPDATE: One step back .... Chris Bowers clearly does not "get it."