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A Point of Difference

One of the formative points in my political upbringing was the 1984 campaign when Gary Hart asked Walter Mondale to identify one single issue where he disagreed with big labor. Mondale couldn't think of anything and went on a notable discourse about how proud he was of this. It doomed Mondale as a tool of special interests. Ever since, I've had a soft spot in my heart for ... well ... Hart.

So it is that I, a Democrat and pretty faithful follower of the DLC/PPI philosophy coined as the "Third Way," reach a point where I can safely say I disagree with both the majority in may party and also the position expressed by NuDonk's Ed Kilgore when they both seem down on Sec. Defense Don Rumsfeld. That this puts me at odds with the wing of the GOP that I tend to speak most favorably of, the McCain-Hagel Caucus makes this point a pretty substantive one, no doubt.

Don Rumseld should stay, not because of some cynical hope that he'll continue on in failure, but that he's the best hope for success in the administration.

David Ignatius comes closest to summing up my view on the matter:

Rumsfeld's situation recalls that of an earlier defense secretary -- Robert S. McNamara -- who struggled with a war that proved far more complicated and painful than expected. The two men share several traits that are at once strengths and weaknesses: a brilliant, intimidating intellect that comes across to many people as arrogance; a skepticism about the Pentagon's encrusted layers of power and past practice, which angers the military brass; a reluctance to play the usual Pentagon game of log-rolling and mutual back-scratching on Capitol Hill, which leaves few political defenders; and, most of all, a bold gambler's decision to go to war without fully understanding the complexities of the battlefield.

McNamara is hated by a generation of military officers who blame him for plunging the Army into a failed ground war; it's too early to know whether Rumsfeld's war will turn out as badly as Vietnam did, or whether he'll have the permanent enmity of the military, but he's certainly on his way. Similarly, McNamara and Rummy have a knack for attracting congressional criticism within their own party. Last week's parade of Republican senators calling for Rumsfeld's resignation -- John McCain, Chuck Hagel, Susan Collins, Trent Lott -- was reminiscent of the pressure from conservative Democrats on the Senate Armed Services Committee who were lobbying LBJ to dump McNamara in 1967.

I've always thought the demonization of McNamara was unfair, or at least misapplied. McNamara's efforts to modernize the military, like Rumsfeld's, were on target. Claims that he prevented the military from winning the Vietnam War are mostly myth; in truth, the military never presented McNamara with a coherent strategy for victory against an elusive guerrilla enemy, as Gen. Bruce Palmer acknowledged in his superb history of the war.

Many of the recent attacks on Rumsfeld similarly miss the point. He is faulted for not having enough troops in Iraq, for example. Perhaps that was true during and immediately after the war, but it isn't now. The role of the additional troops we're sending today is mainly to protect the other U.S. troops there. More American soldiers mean more targets, not more security for Iraqis. Additional soldiers definitely are needed, but they should be Iraqis. The troop debate is partly a rear-action battle against Rumseld's ideas about military "transformation." Advocates of the old, heavyweight Army have never forgiven Rummy for advocating lighter, more mobile forces, but Rumsfeld was correct.

Like McNamara, Rumsfeld has failed to communicate effectively with a war-traumatized nation. There were many things he could have said when questioned in Kuwait about the slow pace of armoring Humvees, because the Pentagon has been working hard in recent months to fix this problem. But in seeming to dismiss an enlisted man's criticism, Rumsfeld came across as saying, in McNamara fashion: You're not smart enough to understand, soldier. Like it, or lump it.

Rumsfeld gets many of the little things right, but he has gotten the big thing wrong. Like McNamara, he realized that the war he had advocated was turning into a "long, hard slog." And like McNamara, he was unable to find a way to alter strategy in the midst of that conflict. Like McNamara, he will probably become a political casualty of the war he helped set in motion.

Rummy isn't perfect by any means. Nor is he fully applauded by me. Many of the mistakes made earlier have led to the current degree of difficulty we now face. But Rumsfeld has proven himself flexible enough to warrant a benefit of doubt on my part, even though he still goes wanting for style points. I think Iraq was the wrong laboratory of expermintation with the smaller military mindset, but that reform has been long overdue (ironically, it's also one that Hart himself had advocated back in the early 80s). And the need to excavate the reformists in the military likewise trumps the fact that I agree with my side in that some of the early firings of officers have been unwarranted. That Rumsfeld hasn't proven flexible enough in my mind doesn't outweigh the fact that he's been flexible enough to adapt to the conditions his earlier problems have reinforced in Iraq. He hasn't invited enough debate over the tactics used to win the battle there, but he's invited more than I foresee of most other likely replacements. So it is that my own fledgling little support of Rumsfeld isn't that he's the Secretary of Defense I might want, but he's the best we have for now under this adminstration and that likely won't change if he is at the end of his nine lives.

ADD-ON: Apparently, I can't make this a perfect split ... Marshall Wittman at Bull Moose is calling for Rummy's retention, too. Damn. Now I feel sorta like a copycat. Although, the Moose's reasons are a bit more cynical. Good enough for now.

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Comments

The smaller military: Where would this work at if not in Iraq?

I agree with Rumsfeld the military needs to slim down but at the other end. There are far too many officers (managers) and not enough soldiers (workers). I do not know the exact ratio but I'm sure the 1 soldier to 5 officers is a conservative estimate. Any engagement we enter into, post-cold war, will have guerilla warfare. That cannot be fought with high-tech gizmos and robotic contraptions alone. These types of engagements will require boots with the high-tech equipment. The military bloat is top-heavy not bottom-laden.

But that transformation would be another war.

Not so much a question of where it would or wouldn't work, but more the case of where you test drive it at. Without picking a new war, my sense is that such an enterprise is best tested on smaller conflicts (those requiring 10,000-25,000 troops) before relied upon for larger ones (over 100,000 troops).

In the case of the present situation, we had the theory seeking an implementation at the same time as the Iraq debate brewed. Would have likely been better, in hindsight, to push for the reformers to move up the ranks as Rummy did, before cramming acceptance of the practice (untested) down the commanders' throats. Ironically, it would have also eased some of the ill will currently directed his way from former military brass.

The <25K troop sounds like a Kosovo conflict, right?

But the Rummy reformers would take more years than Bush's two terms to get infiltrated into the system.

Not familiar enough with the estimates of what ground troops might have added to Kosovo, but size-wise, that sounds about right.

The alternate approach towards reform would have been slower, but it also would be, I argue, more long-lasting and survive either party being in power. As it is, the backlash against some of the reforms could well have endangered them if Kerry had prevailed and could well come undone regardless of which party wins in 2008. But in spite of that, replacing Rummy now (even during Bush's term) just emboldens the bureaucratic conservatives still within the Pentagon.

I've been listening to Thomas P.M. Barnett on C-SPAN for the last two days (www.thomaspmbarnett.com) who also believes in the military transformation. He believes we should have gone into Iraq but is highly critical of the re-construction phase (wrong set of troops in there). After the fall of Baghdad, we had the warriors in there when we needed the re-builders.

He ties in with Rumsfeld with the definition of the re-builders: NGos, international agencies, etc. At this point, it's too late. We're now the invaders rather than the liberators.

Ah, I'm only one of the biggest fans of Barnett's work. Still need to catch the archive of his CSPAN appearance, though. His book is a must-read, I think. Still need to put forth a review, but I know there's no way I can possibly do it justice. Also recommend the two latest books of Harlan Ullman.

It's a sad state when the best this White House will have for a Secretary of Defense is a guy who gets the "big thing" wrong.

Getting the little things right, including military reformation, don't amount to much when the big things are wrong.

I think the removal of Rumsfeld would at least be a step towards making this president realize that his administration can screw up and be held accountable. He wasn't held accountable in the election, obviously.

Tx bubba:

Rumor has it that after the Iraq elections, Rumsfeld will leave. Who would you guess will get the post?

Remember, W likes loyality over all.