I've already said it once, but I'll keep saying it ... District 133 is a Democratic district waiting to happen. The significance of this is that a Democratic win would put some blue roots down deep in the heart of George H. W. Bush's old West Houston, deep Republican region of the county. It is but a toe-hold, but it would also represent the offing of Harris County's most corrupt State Representative, Joe Nixon.
In crunching a few numbers over the weekend, a few interesting tidbits of thought became mathematically evident:
Let's start with what was known the second the official canvas came out ... Kerry only lost this district 43.9% to 56.1%. By no means is that total alone insurmountable. Kathy Stone ran for a State District Judge spot and got a bit better than 2% more on top of that. I, for one, would argue that had she run for State Rep, she could just as easily bettered Hubert Vo's success in topping the Presidential vote by 5%, which puts the math nearly even.
The closeness is important since the 2002 results had the best Dem candidates running about 40% and most running around 35%. Try recruiting a good candidate with those numbers and you'll get an idea of why we didn't have a candidate on the ballot for this race. Want more good news, Dems? They're still building new homes and apartment complexes.
The new construction, in addition to the normal migration of voters has shifted the balance of the district southward, from the heavily GOP West Houston region north of Westheimer, to the central region between Harwin and Westheimer. Precinct 620 was the only one in the district to have a net gain of registered voters and boy did they (3853 to 4613). In fact ... they're still building in that precinct! The precinct is only slowly inching Dem (44% in 2002 - 45% in 2004), but with more persuadable new voters and a more fluid migration of residents, this one is up for grabs. Precinct 765 has officially switched sides, moving from 46% Dem in 2002 to 51% Dem in 2004.
The precincts with the biggest swing to the Dems? Brace yourself ... they're some of the most heavily GOP precincts in the district. Precincts 706, 492, 626, 511, 483, 493 & 438 all are in the northern reaches of the district, and went roughly 38% Dem in 2004. But they only went 32% for Ron Kirk in 2002 and 33% for John Sharp that year. The net plus out of this is about 1000 votes to the extent that the red precints moved Dem. Increased attention by a hard working candidate, the thinking goes, could generate an extra few percentage points movement.
Turnout was predictable in that the GOP precincts still outgained the Dem precincts. In this district, the Dems have two significantly different types of voters to identify ... apartment dwellers and homeowners. It's as if the Dem candidate would need to campaign similar to a candidate in the River Oaks 134th District north of Westheimer and similar to Scott Hochberg in the Gulfton/Sharpstown/Alief district 137 south of Westheimer. That is, of course, an oversimplification of those other two districts, but the jist is that the 133rd has a broader dichotomy of Democratic constituencies to appeal to. Kerry did not do any better in the southern part of the district than Bernardo Amadi did in his hopeless 2002 campaign for State Rep in the 133rd. But Kerry did significantly better than any other Dems in the Republican strongholds, drawing 3.6% better than John Sharp in 2002.That a "New England Liberal" would top a "Texas Good ol Boy" (or any other candidate) in that part of the county indicates a change in the calculus on what type of candidate could win here.
Precincts worth targeting for Dems? Let's try the aforementioned 620, but also 624 since it shifted from 46.9% for Ron Kirk in 2002 to 47.9% for John Kerry. For some reason, Kirk outperformed Sharp and Amadi in this district by a full 3% - this may indicate some targetted blockwalking in 2002, perhaps. Kathy Stone won the precinct with 50.9% in this past campaign. 624 is the next precinct to switch to a solid blue one.
... more on this to come in the days ahead.
Comments
I have a good idea for a candidate in that district, one who almost ran this year before taking on an even bigger target.
Richard Morrison.
Any guy who can go to Fort Bend County and rack up more than 40% against Tom DeLay can surely take on Joe Nixon in his increasingly competitive district.
Posted by: Andrew D | December 20, 2004 04:14 PM
Well, it ain't Congress and Morrisson would have to move over the county line. Can't say I can see him taking the step down. But I agree ... if he ran, he'd be in Austin in two years. And I'd bust everything functional to ensure that it happens.
Posted by: Greg Wythe | December 20, 2004 04:40 PM
I don't think its a step down- he lost Congress (and had only a ghost of a chance of winning), he'll have an excellent chance of winning State Rep. A lot of people do that- lose at one office, move down the line and win at that one. And there was already some talk of him running against Joe Nixon this year, I imagine that if he were convinced he could move soon and run in 2006.
Posted by: Andrew D | December 21, 2004 02:12 PM
By all means, send him my way. I'll help him move.
Posted by: Greg Wythe | December 21, 2004 02:20 PM