GregsOpinion.com

WOW! I thought 2005 was going to be a fairly uneventful year for City Hall races. I was wrong!

In order of importance to nobody but me ... At Large, Position 2:

Likely candidates for at-large Position 2, where Gordon Quan is term-limited, are Houston Community College System Trustee Jay Aiyer, civic activist Sue Lovell and consultant John Elford.

Aiyer held a fund-raiser this fall for his HCC seat. Elford said he thinks Aiyer will try to transfer that money to his council race next year. Council candidates can't begin raising money until February under city campaign finance laws.

"It's an unfair advantage," Elford said.

Aiyer said he hasn't made up his mind whether to transfer the money, but said anyone who is inclined to give him money for HCC likely would support his council race.

This will be a tough race, but I'll start pushing one name above all else from this fair blog:

I hereby endorse Jay Aiyer for City Council!

Full disclosure: I know Jay. Our social ships sometimes cross paths and we're pretty much ideologically in tune (well, for city politics at least ... wouldn't want to start weighing him down with the rest of the baggage available on this site). I've crossed paths with Sue Lovell as well. Nothing against her whatsoever. She's a pretty good DNC rep for us Houstonians and makes the rounds to stay visible, sharing what she can to keep us plugged in with our party. But from readings and conversations with Jay, and getting a feel for his outlook on city politics, I think he's a perfect fit for the times. He strikes me as one who will serve in the non-partisan tradition that Bill White seems eager to rebuild downtown, and for me, that's issue #1 in this election. I suspect when Jay gets hopping online, his previous Chronicle op/eds will be among the items included. Been a while since he's been published, but I'll forewarn the Houston readership here now ... they're good reading. Well, if you get into local politics and stuff.

Now, given the second item of importance in this article, I think that first order of business ought to be something that stands out here. Why? Because my City Councilman is looking at leaving his district seat for an At Large seat:

Councilman M.J. Khan also is considering running for the at-large Position 2 seat, said Neumann, who is Khan's consultant.

Khan, on his first term, has been gauging support for an at-large run.

Council members who jump from district to at-large seats still are subject to the city's three-term limit.

But some council members see at-large positions as more alluring because they allow them to focus on higher-profile citywide issues instead of constituent-based concerns, such as potholes or neighborhood services.

If Khan ran at-large, his southwest Houston District F seat would be open.

This is the big item of interest for most. For one thing, Khan has some potential. I suspect he's also got a good lead on fundraing chits when February rolls around. Now, since Khan is eyeing the same seat as Jay, this is a worthwhile concern for my part. Khan is a mixed bag ... good in certain campaign settings, absolutely horrid in others. He's Pakistani, which is nothing but a plus with District F's fair amount of immigrants from all over, including a sizable Asian/Near/Middle East population. The weakness for Khan is that he's not a great public speaker. He also won his seat with Democratic voters rejecting his racist runoff opponent, Terry McConn, who pulled heavily from the GOP strongholds (McConn also had the endorsement of State Senator Kyle Janeck). So I think if Khan comes out for an At Large seat with bustling competition, I suspect Khan's own GOP roots will come back to bite him if he's the lone GOP guy and the public speaking skills will stunt his potential for relying on name ID (which got most everyone elected to council last time). Sue Lovell has been on the ballot before. She came close, missing a runoff to Ron Green last time. Jay is a bit of an unkown to me in campaign settings. But if I'm relying on voters seeing the three of these people, hearing them out, looking at them, and judging them ... I like Jay's odds even with Khan in the race.

Not discussed is what becomes of District F if Khan moves on. I think I see this one coming. Dionne Roberts is currently serving as Khan's Chief of Staff, ran for the office before, and managed Khan's campaign in 2003. I'll be shocked beyond belief if she doesn't run. That's a step down from Khan in terms of bi/nonpartisanship on the council, although Dionne may not be as bad as others. Would McConn make another attempt at office, or has he moved back to his home of Bellaire? Curiosity for my part is that of Derrick Wesley, who ran in 2003. Wesley had zip for money last time, didn't have any real campaign presence, but what little I have read indicates he's got it together in every other category (not that this translates into votes, obviously). And though I do advocate as much of a nonpartisan council as possible, there is a certain amount of pride on the line in knowing that District F is a Democratic district that has yet to elect a Democrat-leaning City Councilman. I mean, hell, I don't want a Peter Green type, but is it too much to ask for another Eleanor Tinsley around here?

District C, it seems, is going to be rather interesting as well ...

The race to succeed Goldberg in District C already is getting crowded. Tax lawyer Mark Lee has thrown his name into the ring, along with Houston Community College Trustee Herman Litt, lawyer Brian Cweren and lawyer George Hittner.

Lee, who ran for controller last year, said he thinks it's difficult to run citywide and a district race is "more manageable from a geographic point of view."

Mark Lee is possibly the best candidate for Controller to never get more than 20% of the vote. Last time was just not his time, as Annise Parker pretty much had it locked up from the get-go. Another full disclosure here ... I occassionally cross paths with Lee also. Great guy. Can't say I know a great deal of his politics (he's a Dem, but I've never had any policy-related discussion with him), but the fact that he's not a rabid partisan on either side probably speaks well of him. That I have a good number of trusted acquaintances who share that view of Lee means I'm pretty locked up on support for this one, even though I live in another district (Dist C is our next-door district).

Now, here near the end of my analysis, comes the big race of the year:

Jeff Daily has decided to take on Peter Brown for the at-large Position 1 seat, which will be open when three-term Councilman Mark Ellis leaves.

It promises to be an interesting race, pitting two diametrically opposed ideologues who can largely self-finance their own campaigns. Daily is a Republican. Brown is a Democrat. Both ran for different council seats in 2003.

"You've got a fiscal tax-cutting conservative running against a Blueprint Houston guy" said political consultant Spencer Neumann, who is representing Daily.

Blueprint Houston is an urban planning advocacy group of which Brown is a co-founder.

Brown officially declared in May that he would run.

Jolanda Jones, who along with Brown challenged Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs last year, said she also intends to run again, probably for Position 1.

"I don't have anything against Peter, but I wish he would run in his district seat. It's available," she said.

Brown lives in District C, being vacated by term-limited Mark Goldberg. Jones lives in District D, where Ada Edwards is expected to seek a third term.

Although City Council is officially nonpartisan, Jones said she wishes Democrats would run just one candidate in each race. "We cut each other up," she said.

Right off the bat, I'm leaning toward Jones for no other reason than the fact that I'm really unimpressed with Peter Brown. Daily really isn't an option for me. He ran against Pam Holm in the most GOP-friendly district calling her pretty much a liberal tree hugger when she's as in-tune with most West Houston voters as I can imagine. Daily is to the right of that. I'll pass because I think either Daily or Brown would be a vote against the trend Bill White is establishing of dampening the partisanship on City Council. Can't say I know a think of Jones, but she begins as the default.

With fundraising allowed come February, I've got to think most candidates hit the ground running then and there to start elbowing out some of the competition.