The State of '08

The right is so afraid of Hillary. They have talked about her running since about '93, it seems. Indeed, the GOP is probably already preparing for her run in '08. She has her baggage, but overall I like her. But I'm just wondering if she has too many negatives to prevail in a general election.

Evan's got work to do...

Greg,
Even with it's limitation (that it's all name ID), there are three names that we can assume that most Democrats would be aware of: Clinton, Gore, and Kerry. The fact that HRC is ahead of Gore and Kerry (and that Gore is ahead of Kerry) suggests that Gore and Kerry are going to face an uphill climb if Clinton runs. It doesn't seem particularly likely to me that those that support someone other than the two previous nominees would be likely to jump on board since they seem to be pining for something new.

I wonder what the GOP field looks like...

Bubba, as a GOPer, I very much would like Hillary not to become president. That was the primary solace I took when I thought that Kerry was going to win (Kerry and Gore are both preferable). I'm worried about a Hillary presidency, though not so much about a Hillary candidacy. I think Hillary's negatives are high enough that another candidate might pull it out where she falls short. That said, I'd rather take a 60% chance on a John Edwards (to pick a name out of a hat) presidency than a 40% chance of a Hillary one.

GOP side ...

Jeb Bush - 39%
Rudy Guiliani - 30%
John McCain - 14%
Bill Frist - 2%
George Pataki - 2%
George Allen - 1%
Mitt Romney - 1%
Chuck Hagel - 1%
Bill Owens - 1%
Undecided - 9%

Alex,

I'm still under the belief that the top 3 for our side don't make the race in 2008. Hillary may be the shakiest of those, however. If it's her and a pack of unknowns, then the ABC Candidate likely comes from the left as Hillary has been intent on staking her ground in the middle (though, like several, I distrust her instincts). That's bad news for Vilsak and Bayh in particular.

But, obviously, there's way too many lifetimes to think about between now and the first primaries of 2008.

On the GOP side, Jeb seems to be a no-go, so that puts a lot of fairly traditional conservative votes up for grabs. Would they follow to Rudy? I'm doubtful. McCain, I think is more likely. But of course, that would leave a lot of previous commentors seeking for a rationalization. Naturally, I look forward to reading those U-turns if it comes down to it.

As for the ultimate dilemna, let's suggest that a McCain-Dean matchup would offer up my own conflicts (not that the lack of hesitation in choosing sides would fool anyone).

rudy and pataki are too liberal for the GOP

You realize that the numbers you posted are from Florida only?

But isn't Florida just a microcosm for the entire country already?

You realize that Bush hasn't even been sworn in for his second term?

Political junkies need holidays too! I'm going skiing - the rest of you can predict the '08 primaries all you want. =)

Let me know what everybody decides, say... in about 40 months.

Greg,

Yeah, if you discount the top three than it is all name ID. I think that Hillary will definitely make the run, but I definitely hope that I'm wrong. If polls bear out these numbers, it'll certainly be a disincentive for Gore and Kerry to run if HRC does. I don't see Gore running, but I'd put Kerry as a "maybe" and HRC as a "probably." I wouldn't mind Gore v.1996 running, but I'd really like to see Kerry and HRC sit it out.

I agree with your assessment of the GOP side. There is a huge gaping void there as the only person in the top three that has a chance of winning the nod isn't running. McCain's belief that Kofi Annan is worth defending and Donald Rumsfeld reminds me (and I suspect others) of why he's not popular within his party. No way for Rudy, either. I think that flanking the right will be Allen and Frist and, if I had to guess right now, one of them will be the next Republican nominee.

But in regards to Chris's comment, the coolest thing about the primaries is that for once we don't know who the nominees are going to be on either side. That's what makes the speculation so much more fun than it was in 2004 (and 2000, and 1996).