Bayh in position to think about presidential bid
Naturally, my interests for 2008 start from the center, and Bayh is a name worth watching for the next four years. There's grounds for optimism and caution, however, with any candidate.
Bayh is, to be sure, a moderate. He's got the right message for a Dem to run nationwide, but he also has a few signature moments of caution, as Sylvia Smith points out:
With the millions of dollars he raised for the ?04 campaign and with an unchallenging opponent, Bayh had an opportunity to make the case for that cause. But he let that chance slip by. He could have used this campaign as a trial run for some message he?d want to take national, yet he did not. Bayh opted for caution rather than boldness.
Bayh is not noted for political daring, but, like It, taking risks is essential for national-stage politicians. We saw a glimpse of it in Bayh when he was thinking about a presidential run four years ago: He was first out of the box to oppose Bush?s nomination of John Ashcroft as attorney general. But after deciding not to pursue the brass ring, Bayh reined in.
Hand in hand with risk taking is the ability to generate a passionate response in the electorate. What we saw on Tuesday was an interest in the campaign that was a notch above past elections. People who didn?t vote in other contests voted. People who voted but didn?t feel strongly ? argued. And people who were fervent about their beliefs shouted. But passion is not Bayh?s metier, and it doesn?t mix well with centrism.
There are other practical concerns Bayh has to confront. Money, for one.
He proved himself to be a prolific fund-raiser, taking in $7.4 million in the past six years. Can he raise many multiples of that in an even shorter period? He may angle for a seat on the Finance Committee, which is a far better perch for raising campaign donations than his other assignments (intelligence, aging, banking and energy committees). But you can?t finance a presidential exploration just with money from the finance industry.
If Bayh thinks 2008 will be his year, he will make some decisions soon, if he hasn?t already. One thing seared into his political brain from his father?s 1976 short-lived presidential campaign is the folly of getting into a race too late.
So who else to consider?
HRC ... I'll admit openly that I like her more than I thought I would four years ago. She's staked her ground as a responsible moderate on foriegn policy. She's naturally got the smarts to deal with bigger, tougher domestic issues. She's not been afraid to raise her head again on the matter of health insurance. The woman impresses more and more with each step, but alas ... her last name ... her history. It all accomplishes nothing more than to reaffirm those divisions between red & blue America that began to harden in 1998.
Mark Warner (Virginia Gov.) ... tough place to come from, the Virginia statehouse. There's a one-term limit, you're elected in an odd-numbered year ... how to demonstrate an increased appeal? You have to move up the food chain, ala Chuck Robb. No telling if Warner will have that opportunity, but he'll likely be in good position to make his case regardless.
John Edwards ... empty suit. He may well run, but this is the wrong avenue for Democrats to go down. Yes, we all like a fighter. And Johnny may well transform himself into the optimistic version of Howard Dean. But the fact remains that the only reason he floated to the top this time around was due to better candidates ripping each other to shreds first. Furthermore, the question lingers ... exactly what the hell did you do for us this last election? If you didn't carry NC for us, you at least were supposed to help us in those states where there was a bit of NC within them: rural Missouri? Nada. Iowa? Nothing. Ohio? We all see how that went down. When you bring nothing to the table, don't be shocked if we get nothing in return.
Bill Richardson ... knock one: we lost New Mexico. Knock two: the Hispanic vote was a bare win by our side. Bill needs to have some serious show of strength to demonstrate that he's capable of success nationally. Right now, his stock is sinking.
Obama ... the Senator who only needs one name. Too early to run in 2008. The Senate is still a precarious place to run from, and chances are, you'll represent Illinois well by casting several votes that don't play well in several swing states. We'll call if the Vice Presidency is needed, though.
John Kerry ... yes, John Kerry. Not out of the question. Kerry showed a lot of great moves in this campaign that I have to salute him for: he resisted the urge to remake the Democratic party as the Peace party, his concession was the singular best moment to peek at how a President Kerry would govern: his country over partisanship. The geograpgical response to this past election will likely dictate one of two outcomes: the party either moves to the southwest or embraces the New England liberalism that seems to be hardening the partisan divide. Another run by Kerry wouldn't resolve the problems still confronting the party ... but that's not to say he couldn't win in 2008.
Comments
Greg-
I like your call on Evan Bayh. I also think that just as 92 produced Clinton--we will see a call to move back to the center. And that bodes well for him. He isn't the most charismatic guy, but has a centrist message that I beleive Democrats will embrace.
I think you are completely wrong on Edwards. He is a star and can electrify people at an emotional level level like only WJC. He lost NC, because no one votes for the VP. It's like blaming Bentsen for Dukakis not being able compete in the South or losing Texas. This was about Kerry and not Edwards. Your point on Money is well taken. Think about this--only three folks have a national network--HC, Edwards and Evan Bayh (through the DLC). That is where it starts and ends for us. Warner is great and is worth about $600 million. You can throw him in. No one else is real.
Jay
Posted by: Jay Aiyer | November 8, 2004 11:39 AM
We've started a grass roots Bayh group that is growing wildly.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/evanbayhin2008/join
Thanks
Posted by: Bayh In 2008 | November 14, 2004 09:13 PM