« Kaufman's Surprise | Main | Endorsements ... the final go-round: I »

Prediction Time: Texas Style

Well, starting with the big prediction, I'll offer up this assessment: there's three areas where I suspect the driving forces are similar and the outcomes will all be close ...

  • Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida ... all big states, with similar areas of hardship and relief. Right now, PA is looking up for Kerry, Ohio is right behind, and Florida ... it just depends on which poll you believe.
  • Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota ... different makeup of each state, but they seem to be on the same crux: which parts of the state are dominant and which ones are driven like ravenous wolves to get to the polls .. Wisconsin's growing suburbs, Iowa's conservative farmer, Minnesota's increasingly conservative rural counties? No telling, and I have no idea ... I put all three of these up in the air.
  • New Mexico, Hawaii, and Colorado ... very different dynamics going on in each of these, but they still hang in the balance.

    Whichever candidate gets two of three in each category, I think, has the win. For Kerry, the algebra is a bit more daunting. But when it all boils down, I think it will come down to which side is more driven in this election and the result will be something closer to 52-48 than 50-50. Which side gets that 52%? I'll not even pretend to know. Right now, I can foresee a situation where Kerry repeats Gore's fate of winning the vote, but losing the electors. I can also see a situation where the reverse is true. Hell, I can even see a tie game in the Electoral College about a dozen ways short of Tuesday, moreso than I could in 2000.

    For official purposes, I'll put down my official guess for the record as follows:
    Kerry 272
    Bush 266

    Kerry loses Iowa and Wisconson among the Gore states, gaining Ohio & New Hampshire, and Arkansas ... yes, I said Arkansas!

    Maine splits it's electors with Kerry winning statewide. The Colorado Proposition goes down in defeat, so that state is left whole electorally. Among earlier predictions awaiting confirmation or flaming failure: Minnesota does not go GOP (I'm proven wrong), Virginia is surprisingly close (I'm proven right) and Wisconsin barely ekes out a Kerry win (Lambert Field lives on as I'm proven wrong).

    Here in Texas, Bush wins by 59-39, Naderites coming halfway home to make a minor alteration to the 2000 results.

    Statewide:

  • Van Os loses to Brister 40-60, no effective split from the Pres. match.
  • JR Molina loses by about the same margin, Scarbarough does a few % worse due to lack of any campaign effort.

    Multi-countywide:

  • Jim Sharp loses his bid for Appeals Judge 53-47, faring a notch worse than Eric Andell's 2000 results in Harris County.

    Countywide:
    Two Dems win their bid for District Judgeships: Kathy Stone & Bruce Mosier. The rest lose by around 48-52 or 47-53 results. Interest in running as a Dem picks up a notch.

    Reggie McKamie loses for District Attorney, but comes surprisingly close, like 49-51 close.

    State Reps:

  • 1 - Frost wins (Dem Hold - open)
  • 5 - Glaze wins (Dem Gain)
  • 48 - White wins (Dem Gain)
  • 50 - Strama wins (Dem Gain)
  • 56 - Mabry loses (GOP Gain)
  • 72 - Slone loses (GOP Hold)
  • 106 - Hubener wins (Dem Gain)
  • 117 - Leibowitz wins (Dem Gain)
  • 134 - Daugherty 47%; Wong 53% (GOP Hold)
  • 137 - Hochberg 58%; Witt 42% (Dem Hold)
  • 149 - Vo 50.5%; Heflin 49.5% (Dem Gain)

    US Congress:
  • Stenholm loses - 45-55
  • Sandlin wins - 51-49
  • Edwards wins - 53-47
  • Frost loses - 45-55
  • Lampson loses - 43-57
  • Morrison loses: 49-45-5 ... vigilantes burn down the Fjetland homestead
    Nationally, a small net gain for Dems: 3-5 seats.

    US Senate:
    OK - Carson wins (Dem Gain)
    CO - Salazar wins (Dem Gain)
    FL - Martinez wins (GOP Gain)
    KY - Moning ... whatever it is ... wins (Dem Gain)
    SC - Tenenbaum wins (Dem Hold)
    SD - Daschle loses (GOP Gain)
    AK - Knowles wins (Dem Gain)
    NC - Bowles loses (GOP Gain)
    WI - Feingold wins (Dem Hold)
    PA - Hoeffel loses (GOP Hold)
    IL - Obama ... well, you know ... 75%-25% (Dem Gain)
    Chris Dodd named Majority Leader

    • Posted by gregwythe on October 28, 2004 08:24 PM

    TrackBack

    TrackBack URL for this entry:
    http://www.gregsopinion.com/cgi-bin/mt-tb.cgi/5099

    Comments

    Maine splits it's electors with Kerry winning statewide. The Colorado Proposition goes down in defeat, so that state is left whole electorally. Among earlier predictions awaiting confirmation or flaming failure: Minnesota does not go GOP (I'm proven wrong), Virginia is surprisingly close (I'm proven right) and Wisconsin barely ekes out a Kerry win (Lambert Field lives on as I'm proven wrong).

    I'm impressed. Of all the election prognosticators I've read, you're the only one with guts to come right out and predict that the outcome your predicted will prove wrong. You'll be able to tell yourself "I told you so" on Tuesday and act really smug toward yourself about what a gullible fool you are.

    Bravo.

    Posted by: Bucky | October 31, 2004 09:33 PM

    I don't appreciate your comments about vigilantes burning down my house -

    You geniuses haven't figured out that I take votes from DeLay not Morrison since I ran in two prior GOP primaries.

    Your crude comments sound like Tom DeLay.
    Michael Fjetland

    Posted by: Michael Fjetland | November 1, 2004 08:10 PM

    I don't appreciate your comments about vigilantes burning down my house -

    You geniuses haven't figured out that I take votes from DeLay not Morrison since I ran in two prior GOP primaries.

    Your crude comments sound like Tom DeLay.
    Michael Fjetland

    Posted by: Michael Fjetland | November 1, 2004 08:11 PM