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Volokh Revisionism

Volokh asks, and I'm sitting over lunch with time to spare, so what the hell ...

First, assuming that you were in favor of the invasion of Iraq at the time of the invasion, do you believe today that the invasion of Iraq was a good idea? Why/why not?

Easy/lazy answer ... this is why. In short, Iraq was a free pass in the sense that it was likely an inevitablity that we'd re-invade. Hussein waved (figuratively) something that looked like a gun, wanting us to believe he had a gun. He was a fool to think he'd get ignored forever. He wanted to play the same game post 9/11 ... bad timing.

There are still risks that we may or may not yet live with from rooting Hussein out of Iraq, though. I'm skeptical that we'll see the worst of them despite not being able to relegate them to 'inconsequential' just yet.

In regards to faulty intelligence, missing WMDs, etc ... I essentially offer a shrug in regards to Iraq. Both are a big deal for the intel communities to shape up, but neither was critical to the decision re: Iraq. One creates policy looking forward based on what you have from experience and history. One does not create policy in hindsight. If the least of the checkmarks for this endeavor are that we've ridded Hussein from power in Iraq and also from his Middle East neighbors, we're still ahead of the game.

Second, what reaction do you have to the not-very-upbeat news coming of Iraq these days, such as the stories I link to above?

I think it proves two primary things ... you don't half-ass foriegn policy (that means the parts dealing with guns AND diplomacy) and you put more thought into winning the peace afterwards. Bush, in my mind is dead-to-rights-guilty on both of those. Going in, I felt that my doubts on these issues might warrant the same scepticism I mention above. When the time comes to decide, you have to go in with some doubts just put behind you. I put these behind me and Bush proved that to be a mistake on my part. Never again.

Third, what specific criteria do you recommend that we should use over the coming months and years to measure whether the Iraq invasion has been a success?

Months:

  • elections in January, without a significant hitch, in all parts of Iraq
  • basics of safety and security (and power and running water) displayed across Iraq.
  • More vaguely, a demonstrable sign that Iraqis don't view their post-election government as a US tool, but rather - their own.

    Years:

  • a good month or two with no bad news from Iraq
  • no need for US troops to deal with insurgents ... not just a mere withdrawal
  • no civil war
  • more Middle East countries engaging in more peaceful steps toward democracy (Egypt & Iran possibly)

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