Zogby has good news for Dems ... Kerry's in the electoral lead. It'd be great if I were inclined to merely seek out good news that I wanted to believe in. But damned if there's not a handful of states that are worth questioning and wondering if they are even close ....
Florida - Zogby has Kerry with a 1-point lead. I wouldn't be shocked to see anything from a small Kerry win in Florida to a 10-point Bush win in Florida. Maybe its the effect that Robert Rubin's book is having on me (major section early is on the merits of 'probabilistic thinking' ... fascinating stuff!). But along those lines, I'm not willing to bet the farm on a Kerry win in Florida just yet. Check with me about 8pm on Election Day and maybe I'll wager a nickel on any potential outcome in Florida.
Arkansas - new to the Kerry column. There's a case to be made that Arkansas will be among the closest of southern states. And personally, I'd find a lot of good things to say about just that situation should it happen. But in states with such a large conservative portion, as Arkansas has, I have this lingering doubt that you'll inevitably get a final week bounceback towards the GOP. Partisans tend to line up a bit more lockstep in the final weeks ... even Dukakis had a good run nationally in the last two weeks due to this trend. I'd mark an Arkansas win by Kerry with a highlighter if it happens ... but I'm well beyond sceptical for now.
Wisconsin - solid blue in this poll and there's been some results showing a close race despite Kerry's football faux pax. Frankly, I don't see Wisconsin going over 52% for anybody save for a major tank job on either side. But if I see it close, I see that gaffe as a Jeff Gillooly lead pipe to Kerry's knees as the final weeks approach. I'm perhaps less sceptical of Kerry's chances here, but I'm leaning towards seeing a loss here.
New Hampshire - polling shows too much inconsistency to believe this is a solid blue. What leads me to think Kerry's gonna miss the mark is the fate of Jeanne Shaheen in 2002. If that strong of a Dem cannot win a Senate race, why am I to conclude Kerry will win it? On the other hand, I may have been too down on Kerry in Maine. A review of polling shows more consistent Kerry leads there than I had thought in the past. Where the state party's position may aid Kerry in Arkansas, I've got to think a weakened party in New Hampshire has a dragging effect on Kerry here.
All that said, at least this analysis is consistent with one pollster. So whatever flaws Zogby has, they're applied equally. Based on the discrepancy I've seen in the other pollsters, it looks tough to pick and choose which one to follow. The Rasmussen version doesn't call a few close ones and leaves the counted totals as 213-189 for Bush. Make of em what you will. Right now, I'm getting a picture of the race tightening, but there's a lot of lifetimes left in this thing.