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Strayhorn Redux

Strayhorn gets support from donors who oppose Perry

Two-thirds of the money Strayhorn raised in the first three months of this year came from traditionally Democratic trial lawyers and executives of a tax-consulting firm whose founder has said he is disappointed with Perry, The Dallas Morning News reported in its Sunday editions.

Strayhorn collected nearly $300,000 from donors who have contributed to Democrat John Sharp, who lost to Perry in 1998, according to the newspaper's analysis of the latest political contributions report.

About $200,000 came from executives of Dallas-based Ryan & Co., which represents businesses in tax cases before the comptroller's office.

G. Brint Ryan, the company's managing principal, said he blames Perry for possible tax increases that could come out of the special legislative session on school finance.

"We support low taxes on the business community because it's the right thing to do economically," said Ryan, adding that he would vote for Strayhorn if the GOP primary were held today. "She's been staunch about lowering the cost of government, and we support that."

Strayhorn also raised more than $51,000 from personal-injury trial lawyers, who usually contribute to Democratic campaigns.

One tidbit not mentioned here is that John Sharp himself works for Ryan & Co. Coincidence or not, its a noticable tie. However, this report answers one of my lingering questions on the fate of Carole ... where's her money going to come from? Apparently, a good chunk of it is coming from traditional Dem sources. So does this up the odds any on a party switch? Color me "still doubtful" on this one. Maybe its her "shut down the strip clubs" idea that just rings in my mind that Carole isn't in this game for policy reasons, but perhaps just to leave a mark.

Still, I don't see how Carole ends up with her name on the ballot in 2006 if she stays with the GOP. She's ticked off too many people there lately. To top that, she's still at it. Apparently, the announcement that Susan Combs will seek the Comptroller's job isn't going to muzzle that tough grannie. Yet I'm still perplexed at how Carole sees herself on the ballot in November if she stays within the GOP.

Over lunch with Kuff, the convo seemed to conclude that the best bet for Carole (and others) is if Kay Bailey Hutchison hangs it up. No argument there. But even if Perry & Dewhurst settle who's running for what (Perry is now mumbling about running for re-election as Guv), that means Carole can either have the pole position in running for Lite Guv or settle things a bit messier by taking on Perry, as she seems intended to do. So we've got two scenarios:

  • Perry v Strayhorn for Guv: Perry's not entirely loved among GOP voters, but he's the devil they know and he's also taking shots from Strayhorn that sound eerily like those a Democrat might make. For all of Perry's faults, does anyone see GOP voters dumping him for Carole? I'm pretty sure Perry could wake up with a live goat in his bed and still manage to win this one.

  • Strayhorn for Lite Guv: Strayhorn will likely be the biggest name here if she takes this race. But I can't imagine the GOP establishment is happy enough with her to leave her with a clean shot. Who, then, enters this race with enough street cred to take on the lead vote-getter in 2002? Coupla names (sorta): Robert Eckels - Harris County Judge. Nice political skills, decent-to-great connections and network. Second choice: pick a GOP State Sen. name out of a hat. After seeing Dewhurst, a relative upstart, manage things not-too-badly, there's got to be some envy and the realization that this is a good shot to get rather high up in the pecking order of things. Steve Ogden? Todd Staples? Kim Brimer? I've gotta think there's at least one who wouldn't hesitate to take this race on. Assume Eckels is the lead challenger in this one, and that race is pretty even, if you ask me. As far as challengers go, Eckels would start off in GREAT position and if enough publicity lands on this race, as it should, look for Strayhorn to be cast aside.

    Now, compare the above scenarios to Strayhorn getting a clean shot at Guv or Lt. Guv if she crosses over. I'm sure some crank takes on the challenge out of principle. I'm also sure that they have a ceiling of 25% ... more if they have an Hispanic surname (potential to win, if so, but realistic bet at this point would seem to be 40% against Carole). If she gets a bigger name challenge (ala Morales v Sanchez) out of the same principle, then all bets are off. Its a dogfight, but again ... one with better odds that Strayhorn is on the ballot in November.

    Wildcard entry ... Strayhorn goes indie. Now THAT would certainly open up the parlor game to a few more ideas.

    In other races, BOR notes that the jostling has begun for Ag Commish - a race opened up by Combs' announcement. This has tended to be a lesser race among State Rep graduates as of late. That means the Dem pick for this one could be even lesser-known than most.