GregsOpinion.com

Locally, the big races went as anticipated, with most of the surprises saved for district races:

Mayor:
Bill White - 37.98%
Orlando Sanchez - 33.37%
Sylvester Turner - 27.98%

Dist. A: Toni Lawrence wins outright, with 50.11% of the vote. Rather surprising given the level of support that Josh Berry was getting from the endorsement crowd. He ended with a mere 24.58%, though.
Dist. B: Carol Galloway ... no shock ... 86.56%
Dist. C: Mark Goldberg ... no shock ... 72.12%
Dist. D: Ada Edwards ... no shock ... unopposed.
Dist. E: Addie Wiseman ... no shock ... 71.12%
Dist. F: Khan - 37.6% ... McConn - 36.68% ... Wesley - 16.64% ... more below.
Dist. G: Holm - 33.05% ... Jeff Daily - 16.82% ... Mike Howard - 16.68% ... Tim Shen - 14.46% ... 60 votes provide the difference for making the runoff.
Dist. H: Garcia - 38.69% ... Martinez - 33.95% ... Longoria - 14.00% ... wow! ... more below
Dist. I: Carol Alvarado ... no shock ... 62.90%

At Large #1: Mark Ellis ... outright win ... 57.00% ... Andrew Burks - 23.16% ... Brian Wozniak - 11.78%
At Large #2: Gordon Quan ... outright win ... 57.62%
At Large #3: Shelly S-Gibbs - 42.35% ... Peter Brown - 25.69% ... more below
At Large #4: Bert Keller - 39.68% ... Ron Green - 30.66% ... Sue Lovell - 21.66%
At Large #5: Michael Berry ... outright win ... 51.19% ... Dwight Boykins claims only 24.42%.

Controller: Parker - 41.54% ... Tatro - 20.40% ... Mark Lee - 15.01%

So the premier December runoffs are as follows:

Mayor (d'uh!) - White v Sanchez
Dist. F: Khan v McConn
Dist. G: Holm v Daily
Dist. H: Garcia vs Martinez
AL #3: Gibbs v Brown
AL #4: Keller v Green
Controller: Parker v Tatro

Analysis: While there's little shock on the mayoral outcome (mind you, Strong was closer than I was on the final outcome ... and almost nailed the total votes to perfection ... but it took him two tries to get it right), a few of the district races are rather surprising. That Toni Lawrence won outright can only be seen as a minor surprise. Her roots in the district go a bit deeper than Josh Berry, although both had substantial support. Lawrence had run before and made a competitive race against Tatro. But still ... for a novice to win outright on the first open shot at the seat, that's a feat.

Khan v McConn, I alluded as a distinct possibility. I'm still a bit surprised at how badly Wesley ran, but he evidently did little to no organizing north of Bellaire Ave. and that will hurt anyone. In order for someone to pull off the Dionne Roberts shocker, they have to make inroads into Sharpstown as well as the southern and southwestern enclaves. A lack of money also didn't help Wesley. Khan and McConn are both well funded ... look for the runoff to be heated. Worth noting is that McConn was tied closely with Mark Ellis ... their victory parties were held jointly. Khan had a flyer out with an endorsement from Hakeen Olajuwon as well as another person ... Brandon Rasch. Don't know who that is? Rasch is the person former district F council member Ray Driscoll thought he would have to fend off in 1997, only to be shocked by an upstart Dionne Roberts. That the fault lines still exist between the Ellis/Driscoll group and the Rasch group, I suppose, shouldn't be a shock. For what its worth, to this Dist. F citizen, the task is now to see how reasonable Khan or McConn will be towards the majority of the district, which is, ironically, Democrat (and nonvoting!). For an explanation as to why a district that went 55% for Ron Kirk now has to choose between two GOP council members, its worth noting the district is split between homeowners (largely Anglo, but the typical Houston assortment of other ethnic groups as well) and apartment dwellers: in addition to myself, they tend to slant more ethnically to counterbalance the ethnic distribution of homeowners. It leads to some quirky election results, to say the least ... add in the dismal showing of Sylvester Turner, and you get two Republicans duking it out here. Go figure.

District G is just to my north, and represents a more upscale crowd. If Peggy Hamric runs for State Senator or US Rep, look for Pam Holm to fill that spot potentially. The runoff is predictable, but I think Holm should carry it handily.

In District H, all I have to ask is what the hell happened to Hector Longoria??? This one is a shocker, even if only to me. The runoff will be nasty, and we'll have Houston's ace blogger, Kuff handling the up close review of it from his front porch. Hispanic battles like this tend to be among the nastiest type of personal attack elections one can witness. Roman Martinez is no stranger to them. He's been in the battles with Ben Reyes and he's been angling for Gene Green to get the boot in his Hispanic 29th US District. Oh yeah, and Roman Martinez is married to one of the candidates in the runoff: Dianne Martinez. Look for this one to be bloody!

At Large #3: Peter Brown should have done much better. He did a better than decent job of raising money, so his showing in this election can only be taken as a disappointment as Airbag Shelly nearly won it outright. Brown needs to show he can hit the money trail successfully again and he needs to put some money into TV ... hell, he should have done that last time around, too. Let's face it, Brown is unknown and despite his impressive resume and similarities to Bill White he should be clinging to those coattails a bit more tightly. That he only earned a quarter of the vote will make his fundraising task a bit harder, however.

At Large #4 was a bit of a surprise for a few reasons: Bert Keller has some baggage, so his lackluster showing might not be too surprising. But Sue Lovell's 3rd place showing is. Time for Dems to get to know (and get behind) Ron Green. Hmmm, might it be ironic if we truly have the rainbow coalition in City Hall of White, Green, & Brown? The presence of an African American on the ballot for a single At Large race should serve to energize some votes that should also aid Bill White. It should also be a wakeup call that Dems will likely face a minority status in City Hall when the December results are in. Seven of the races are already decided in favor of the GOP ... a win by Keller or Gibbs makes City Council a GOP bastion.

At Large #5 is a Rorshach test ... yes, Berry won outright ... but he did so with a mere 51.19%. It's better than he did last time when it took a runoff to beat Claudia Williamson, but its not exactly a ringing endorsement of broadbased support, either. Make of it what you will. Berry will be too busy planning a race for 2004 to care either way. My bet is on a congressional race.

Controller is no shock at the top ... Parker was expected to lead. But that Tatro held on against Vasquez is a shock. In fact, Vasquez finished below Mark Lee. Repurcussions of the tax vote he cast? Possibly. Then again, most people can smell an opportunist. Look for this one to get testy, but it should be a decent race to witness. Parker and Tatro are both among the more level headed types on City Council ... so I'm not expecting a bloodbath here.

Mayor: Bloodbath central. Will Sanchez continue his GOP-style campaign, or will he see the writing on the wall and move to the middle? ... something most people expected of him when Michael Berry dropped out. What is there to be gained from moving more and more to the right in a major urban city? The Bush's aren't even endorsing Sanchez (at least not openly). Where's the TV ads like Poppy had for him last time around? Will Rick Perry get involved? Or will the Bush's get a few whispered comments back that some of their supporters are openly voting and donating to the Bill White campaign? Barring an unexplained death to an intern, Bill White is the next mayor ... but how bloody does it get? Bob Lanier famously dropped the gloves (with a little help from Channel 13) in 1989 and came out looking like Mr. Clean afterwards ... so anything's possible. The ride should be entertaining, if nothing else.

Oh yeah, and Rail won ... woo-hoo! $5 says John Culberson still tries to sabatoge it.

UPDATE: the Chron reports that President Bush did make an appearance in the campaign ... via the ever so popular prerecorded/automated phone call

UPDATE II: Another Chron article gives us the exit polling breakdown:

White:
55% of Anglo voters (called it!)
35% of Hispanic voters
17% of African American voters
70% of Asian American voters

Sanchez:
55% of Hispanic voters (ouch!)

Turner:
75% of African American voters
<10% of other crosstabs

And this from Murray on how to derail Bill White:

"It takes a scandal, something that voters don't know about today," said University of Houston political scientist Richard Murray, who conducted the Chronicle's exit polling. "White has control of issues and demographic splits.

"It's got to be something that we do not know about the candidate personally."