Last Gasp Local Election News
This has to be the most worthless poll ever done:
Most undecided in elections for controller, council
Essentially, no candidate has over 22%, with that going to Quan and Berry in their citywide races. The few disconcerting findings here are these:
Dwight Boykins - down 3-to-1 vs Berry, but Beulah Shepard has 1% to Boykins' 7%.
Peter Brown - THIRD PLACE? He's behind Jolanda Jones, who is almost dead even with incumbant Shelly Whateverhernameisthiselection.
Sue Lovell - THIRD PLACE?
Brian Wozniak - 2%!?!?!?!
The polling for controller is also interesting:
Parker - 19%
Tatro - 10%
Lee - 6%
Jones - 3.5%
Vasquez - 2.5%
I guess Vasquez might want to see if the ship has sailed on an appointment by either Perry or Bush to be ... well, anything.
The bottom line is that many of these races will be decided by a mix of familiarity and GOTV strength. Familiarity will likely be good news for the GOP district members running citywide. It'll be harsh on the Wozniaks, Lovells, and Browns on the ballot, however.
I guess I first noticed up close the meaninglessness of having a name on city council when Chris Bell ran for mayor. Yes, he won reelection with comfy margins, yes he had broad support that goes hand-in-hand with those comfy margins. But to mistake that showing with any broader depth of support to translate into a higher profile race is tough. Bell finished the traditional gentlemanly 3rd that all white moderates are accustomed to now. And he clawed tooth and nail against another citywide council member in the runoff for the 25th ... losing most/all black precincts to Carroll Robinson.
There's a thinness of support for candidates below mayor, and that shows in spades with this poll.
In brighter news, rail is leading in the polls: 44-30. That support doesn't clock in above 50 has to be a bit worrisome for supporters such as myself. Also worth noting is the trend the article mentions with the anti- side gaining ground (from 21 to 30), while the pro- side remained stable.
The same poll has the mayoral race showing thusly:
White: 35%
Sanchez: 25%
Turner: 19%
If Turner shows that poorly, I'll be among the most surprised in the world. Among the points addressed that I will claim a bit of prescience for is that White's support among Anglos (if the 30% support White has among GOP voters is any evidence) is better than the George Strong prediction, apparently. (Note: Strong amends his prediction to reflect a Bill White surge: 37-36-27; White-Sanchez-Turner).
Hypothetical runoff polling has White beating Sanchez 49-33 ... I'd expect that to tighten, but I'd love it if I'm proven wrong. I'll stick with my prediction just for the hell of it, though.
Another story on the final stages of the November portion of the race give a little mention to the Citizens for a Better America that's been all the rage lately.
Comments
This poll is obviously flawed.
Bob Stien is very Close with White so he's trying to make Turner look Low
The original poll showed Turner getting %50 of the Black Vote Give Me A Break!!
It's going to be Turner-White Run-Off
With the loser taking on Rick Perry- Carol Keeton Rylander Strayorn- Kay baily Hutchinson.
Posted by: Grant | November 2, 2003 02:48 PM
As much as I'd like to discount this poll, Stein was VERY accurate last round, and past performance is as good a measure of accuracy as any. Sanchez is in bad shape right now. He's being trounced by White in the polls, and he doesn't have the money to recover.
As it stands, and no matter how much it disturbs me, Bill White will probably be our next mayor. He'll probably go into the runoff with Sanchez and win by double-digits.
Posted by: Owen Courr?ges | November 2, 2003 08:06 PM