Kentucky Update
Just a little updater on the Kentucky Governor's race. The Washington Post writes rather apocolyptically that the Democrats could be history if they lose. This is in reference to the fact that KY, like many southern states has trended GOP and has still clung to voting DEM in state elections. Where it misses the mark is that many other states that trend GOP at the Presidential level have records of voting for Governors and other state officials of both parties. Mississippi elected a slate of Democrats last time around and may vote in a slate of Republicans this time around. Flether may yet beat Chandler this time around in KY, and other states have their own mixed track record on recent elections: GA, SC, FL, AL, etc .... Much like Texas, the permancy of these trends is a lot less permanent than some seem to think.
Still, in Kentucky, it looks like the Chandler camp is relying on GOTV to put them over the hump. My bet is that either Operation STOMP or some similar effort is going to kick in for the GOP side and KY Dems will learn what many others have: the GOP can do GOTV just like Dems. Ernie Fletcher is a congressman and I'm willing to bet his ties to DeLay and the RCCC will instill the memory of what STOMP did for the 2002 elections.
The Kentucky Post has a bit of number crunching to indicate the GOP gains over time.
Since 1995, more than 40,000 new Republican registrations have been recorded in Northern Kentucky. That's compared to about 16,000 new Democratic registrations.That means that Democratic registration has grown 20.8 percent from 1995, with Republican registration jumping 76.3 percent.
The number of voters is increasing as the area experiences population growth, in some areas as high as 53 percent from 1990 to 2000.
Including independent registrations, there are 213,481 total registered voters in the three Northern Kentucky counties in 2003.
Those voters will help choose Kentucky's new governor and other statewide officers on Tuesday, as polls open from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Polling tends to put Flether in the low 50s and Chandler in the low-mid 40s ... I'll call this one GOP. Meanwhile, the WSJ is predicting a GOP sweep and Bush to take credit for it all as he's stumping for Flether and Barbour this weekend. I think the sweep is realistic, but where credit is to be found is not with Bush.