The Mother's Milk of Politics
Candidates spend freely in quest for mayor's seat
So now that the spending has reached record levels (which should shock nobody in an open race), the numbers are in and Bill White (again, no surprise) leads the pack in the money race: just over $6 mill.
Frequent mention has been given to the amount White has dipped into his own bank account, but here's something more telling: Sanchez & Turner have collectively raised $3.64 mill & White has dipped into his bank for all of $2 mill. That still means that White has outraised the other two (combined!) outside of his own bank account.
The latest period reports are also indicative of some strength on White's part:
For 10.01.03-10.25.03:
White: 920,000
Sanchez: 512,000
Turner: 136,000
Cash on hand is as follows:
White: 122,000
Sanchez: 44,000
Turner: 135,000
And that last number is important. Turner should have good results out of African American precincts and that money can either go a long way towards a GOTV effort on 11/4 or it can fund some TV to make up some of the ground he needs at present. But it definitely makes him a wildcard worth watching. Still, why the hell is Buster Brown donating to Turner's campaign?
Sanchez should have no problem relying on another round of fundraising in a runoff, White can as well (plus he's still got a healthy bank account). Turner, it remains to be seen. So he might have to hedge a bit and harvest some dough for a December race.
EXTRA: I'm a few days behind on this one, but George Strong has some math to predict the outcome on 11/4:
Sanchez - 121,688 (40.6%)
White - 91,462 (30.5%)
Turner - 86,850 (29.0%)
My own fearless prediction on that race is thus (% only):
White - 34%
Sanchez - 32%
Turner - 30%
I think Strong is undercounting Anglo votes for White and overestimating (at least for November) Sanchez's appeal there. Strong says Sanchez will get 50% to White's 35% ... I say they'll both be in the low 40s. That brings White and Sanchez a bit closer in my prediction.
Strong, like me, doesn't count Turner out just yet. Strong notes the TV time for Turner is just starting. I think the interesting scenario will unfold in December when we have to guess who stays home, who gets out to vote, and what hurt feelings exist on 11/5 if Turner is the odd man out.