Houston's District F
When I first thought about the general area that ecompassed much of City Council District F, I had a hunch that it included a fair amount of Scott Hochberg's "Little Ellis Island" district. That includes a smorgasborg of immigrants as can be attested to by a quick drive along Bellaire Ave. outside of the loop. But I suspected there were also pockets of Democratic support that might make it amenable to a Dem or Dem-leaning candidate. I had no idea how correct I was.
Right off the bat, this map is a bit off - I'll get on the record now. There's a little minute region of Ft. Bend county that affects it, and I have yet to figure out how the map on the City's website has a region that defies imagery based on the current precincts. Could be that the precinct encompasses city as well as incorporated regions. Dunno, haven't gotten into that much detail. In the end, it matters little.
District F is a Democratic district.
Knowing that it encompassed a bit of the southern portion of Joe Nixon's House district, I figured it would be a good area for a black Dem to win in. Sure enough, a quick search found that Bernard Amadi ran as a write-in for the 2001 election in this district. Who? Amadi is the Nigerian-born candidate who challenged Nixon in 2002. He got squat in 2001, but blame that on the write-in status. Still, it got me to thinking that instead of using the Sharp-Dewhurst numbers for this area, why not check the Kirk-Cornyn numbers. Kirk won this area 54-46 ... considering the regions I likely missed as either in Ft. Bend or partial precincts, let's call it 55-45 Dem.
So why have two Republicans represented this area lately?
Mark Ellis is the current councilmember. Ray Driscoll used to be (yes, I know - might have been slightly more GOP-friendly pre-2000 redistricting. I'll touch on that in a sec). Mind you, any 55-45 district is not necessarily a gimme for the "Party of 55." Scott Hochberg represents a 55-45 district and had a fair amount of challenge in offing Dionne Roberts. Come to think of it, someone else once had a bit of difficulty offing Dionne Roberts. Who was it, again?
Oh yeah! ... Ray Driscoll!!!
The year was 1997. Driscoll faced a challenge from two people primarily: Dionne Roberts (a novice to politics, still in law school), and Brandon Rasch. Rasch was to be taken more seriously for reasons lost to history. Driscoll devoted a fair amount of energy to cut Rasch off wherever possible. Being a two-term incumbant, he should have had no sweat from the others.
Then came Election Night 1997:
Ray Driscoll - 38.89%
Dionne Roberts - 29.14%
Brandon Rasch - 21.81%
James Neal - 10.16%
The runoff fully demonstrated the complexity of the race, the district, and city politics. Driscoll ran with the endorsement of Democratic State Senators John Whitmire and Mario Gallegos as well as Republican local officials Steve Radack and Glen Cheek. Roberts garnered the endorsements of the AFL-CIO and River Oaks Area Democratic Women. Hats off to Driscoll for being able to play bipartisan/nonpartisan trooper for city politics ... Roberts, we would learn 5 years later, was just being coy about her political leanings. All that said, the end result was a nail biter for Driscoll:
Driscoll - 52.24%
Roberts - 47.76%
That's pretty shaky for an incumbant councilmember against a novice ... albeit an energetic and opportunistic one at that. It underscores how close this district is politically. There's a ton of swing precincts and a few true-believer precincts for both sides. Still ... why the hell hasn't a Democrat won this district?
Broadening the viewpoint here ... As the current races heat up, all appearances are that Houston could very well be a GOP city. Yeah ... repeat after me ... Houston could be a GOP city. At least in terms of its elected representatives. Let's take a look at a very likely outcome after this election as a conversation point:
Mayor - Orlando Sanchez (R)
Controller - Gabe Vasquez (R)
Dist A - Toni Lawrence (R)
Dist B - Carol Galloway (D)
Dist C - Mark Goldberg (R)
Dist D - Ada Edwards (D)
Dist E - Addie Wiseman (R)
Dist F - M.J. Khan (R)
Dist G - Pam Holm (R)
Dist H - Hector Longoria (R)
Dist I - Carol Alvarado (D)
AL 1 - Mark Ellis (R)
AL 2 - Gordon Quan (D)
AL 3 - Shelley Gibbs (R)
AL 4 - Bert Keller (R)
AL 5 - Michael Berry (R)
Do the math ... 12 Republicans, 4 Democrats. This is the City of Houston we're talking about. (Presently that breakdown comes to 8-8 courtesy of Vasquez's party switch.)
Mind you, this is the best possible scenario for the GOP in December. Quite a few of these races are not givens, but this scenario is by no means outlandish in possibility. I'd put Vasquez for Controller as the longest odds on this list. Democrats should be able to maintain thier strength with a few tweaks to this outcome:
Mayor - Bill White (D)
Controller - Annise Parker (D)
Dist A - Toni Lawrence (R)
Dist B - Carol Galloway (D)
Dist C - Mark Goldberg (R)
Dist D - Ada Edwards (D)
Dist E - Addie Wiseman (R)
Dist F - Derrick Wesley/John Shike (D)
Dist G - Pam Holm (R)
Dist H - Diana Martinez/Adrian Garcia (D)
Dist I - Carol Alvarado (D)
AL 1 - Andrew Burks (D)
AL 2 - Gordon Quan (D)
AL 3 - Peter Brown (D)
AL 4 - Sue Lovell (D)
AL 5 - Dwight Boykins (D)
Now the tables are reversed ... 12-4 for the Dems. Again, this is the best case scenario, but I'd argue that it's a bit more of an uphill climb for our team. Here's why:
So, in short, there's a lot of races there that are a close call. Don't be shocked if you wake up and see a de facto Republican City Hall after the December runoffs.
Back to my little old district now. What gives with the GOP representation?
Remember one of the other elections in 1999 ... the one for the Basketball Arena? That vote lost and it lost for two reasons: it had organized and well funded opposition and it was a very low turnout election with Lee Brown facing no "name" opposition. I was against that bond issue, just as I was against the baseball vote as well as the later vote for the current Toyota Center. In doing some homework to demonstrate how broad the opposition was for the arena, I pointed out that the precincts that encompassed Scott Hochberg's and Debra Danburg's State House districts voted *NO* for the arena bonds. Richard Murray would later point out that the average age of the voters in that election were some 20 years older than in a Presidential election. In a sense, it goes back to the old conventional wisdom that Republicans vote no matter what, and that Democrats voted when the weather was nice. That wisdom has since been turned on its head, but there's something to it when the vote gets to a low level, off year election. It's not a mistake that many district councilmembers tend to be very involved in their homeowners associations ... typically more GOP-friendly than Dem-friendly as well as warm to the idea of property tax cuts typically promised by GOP candidates. So, in a tight district, that can compensate a bit for the otherwise 55-45 nature of a district.
That District F, in particular, has had GOP representation for so long should energize Democrats in this district. I'll be doing a little homework on the candidates over time, but this now serves as the groundwork for it. I literally have no clue which two candidates will make the runoff. I wouldn't bet on it, but I'd say for now, Khan's money and Wesley's ethnicity make them strong possibilities. I reserve the right to revise that when the next round of campaign finance reports roll in.
Comments
Check out the poll on Sylvester Turner's website, www.turnerformayor.com, where it shows Sanchez leading, Turner second, and White third. This poll coincides with what Sanchez and Berry's polls were showing also.
Posted by: Craig Stewart | September 30, 2003 11:39 AM
Check out how it polls those "absolutely certain to vote." Curious wording and I'd be interested to see fuller results of "Likely voters." I expect that those results will be shown on Turner's website?
Posted by: Greg | September 30, 2003 12:30 PM
Councilmember Parker's lesbianism is not really a concern of mine. I do hope if elected controller she'll be more interested in, say, Houston finances, than in the financing of Iraq's reconstruction, however. Since she seemed convinced that the Iraq War was a crucial matter for City Council to address, one can never really know, eh? And that could be what's give some pause.
You know, when we're not busy simply being (R)acist homophobic SUV-driving neanderthals.
Posted by: kevin whited | September 30, 2003 03:32 PM