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Murray on Houston Politics

Stop what you're doing and read Richard Murray's summary of Houston politics. It's a hefty little read (PDF file, FYI) that covers a fair amount of history and trends that affect the Houston political scene. There's only a few dabs of PoliSci terminology, so it's safe to read for the layman.

Of interest, Murray takes a look back at the last three mayors and the types of coalitions they've put together for elections. He also paints a picture of the current contenders:

  • Sanchez: "Keys for Sanchez in 2003 are keeping Anglo conservatives from going to Michael Berry, Anglo moderates from going to Bill White, and holding his Hispanic base support at 65% in the general election. Most analysts think Sanchez matches up well with Sylvester Turner in a runoff, but will be much more at risk if he ends up facing Bill White."

  • Turner: "Turner appears to have very good potential to run first or second in the November general election. The more difficult task is putting together a broader coalition that can win a runoff 30 days later."

  • White: "Keys for White are using his financial advantage effectively; running at least a decent second with all voter groups; and, above all, making the race one of issues not personality. A probable winner if he can get in a runoff, the tough nut for White is avoiding the third place finish of George Greanias and Chris Bell."

  • Berry: "Weaknesses include relative lack of political maturity (he is finishing his first 2-year term in city office) and youthful appearance, doubtful ability to compete with White and Sanchez in raising money, and relatively low name ID going into the race. Keys for Berry are raising enough money to run an aggressive campaign that peels off enough conservative and Republican support for him to pass Sanchez and make the runoff."

    Also worth noting how Turner's history of running for mayor is covered. In 1991, Bob Lanier egged Turner into running before pulling an Arnold-esque about face to run himself. Contrast that with the present situation in which Michael Berry sought out Sly's support for his run for council in exchange for support on Turner's run for mayor this time. Seriously raises the question about how gullible Sly is ... everyone seems to want to run against him for mayor. Could it be because he's likely to lose everytime he runs?

    Kinda reminds me of the first series of Survivor episodes. Rich, I believe, was the guy who everyone wanted as their opponent for the Final Two ... figuring nobody would dare vote for such a Machiavellian type. There, it seems, just enough people supported him for being the more honest devil, as opposed to the more coy devil who had landed opposite him ... and Rich ran off with a million bucks. Fortunately, I don't think voters cast votes according to similar logic (say what you will of the 2001 runoff election of Stupid vs Evil).

    • Posted by gregwythe on September 19, 2003 12:06 PM