Cruz/Arnold Switch Leads
Bustamante Has Big Lead on Schwarzenegger
Polling has been all over the place for the California recall election, and for good reason. The LA Times has Cruz ahead 35-22 over Arnold. That's huge, in case anyone's noticed. But they go on to explain later:
But the contest remains unsettled, and polling is a particular challenge in this environment, given the special nature of the election and the way the campaign has been collapsed into a relatively brief, two-month time frame. California has never before witnessed a gubernatorial recall election. Voter turnout will be critical to the outcome, yet it is difficult to predict who will cast ballots. The figures in the Times poll assume a disproportionately high Republican turnout.
Given the assumption of GOP turnout, I'm even more baffled by the Bustamante lead. My first thought was that there was an overemphasis on Hispanic turnout. The footnotes indicate that there was some weighting of the samples taken to match census figures, but that doesn't always correspond with voter turnout ... far from it, in fact. I've got to think this race is closer than the poll indicates, but even if it's neck and neck, that's good enough at this point for Cruz.