Last Chance Polls
HoustonChronicle.com - Poll puts Perry in double-digit lead in Texas governor's race
Of interest ... Sharp is finally showing up on top of Dewhurst in a poll. But with only 4% separating them and 15% undecided, its tough to really make any great claims about the race still.
The poll also backs up some of Mickey Kaus' rumors that the Senate race might be closer than originally thought. Basically its Sanchez down by 12, Kirk down by 6, Sharp up by 4, and Watson down by 8 on the Dem side. If Democrats get an election night bump, as I think they will, it could make for a very close race. Now don't go thinking I'm just gonna eat a pile of crow if that bounce never happens. Its 50-50 if it does, and it just comes down to how much you believe the Dems GOTV can go head to head with the Republicans' GOTV. Seeing how well Harris county does with El Franco Lee and Garnett Coleman working in the African American precints, I've got a little faith in them to work a little magic for Kirk. I think the Sanchez efforts at mining votes in the valley is a little more difficult and while he might see some dividends, it may not be enough to really make a dent in the final numbers. Basically, I don't quarrel with the Sanchez-12 findings. That Kirk would show a -6 indicates he might be onto something here.Still not gonna go out on a limb to say he's got a chance at winning, but a 51-49 finish in that race will turn a lot of heads.
I think the Lite Guv numbers may bear out. Obviously, that's based on hope as much as anything else. If Sharp can't beat Dewhurst with the Dream Team he himself recruited, its time for him to hang it up.
Watson still appears to be on the outside looking in and might also benefit a little from the work in black and Hispanic areas, as Sharp will. Still, for him to be a winner would require a major upset. As a side note, I have seen the latest ads in the AG race, and its pretty entertaining. Basically, Watson took Abbott to task for hypocrisy on trial lawyers, claiming they were good enough for him when he had an accident that landed him in the wheelchair he now sits in, while deriding them on the campaign trail. Abbott then retorts with what I personally find to be one of the more comical ads this season ... a rock landing near his wheelchair, he picks it up and basically does a little plea for sympathy song and dance. Now politics aside, I know the notion of me, a Democrat, decrying this ad will not carry much weight, but irregardless ... I'm laughing my butt off over that one. I have just not seen enough political ads saying (parenthetically) "Vote for me because you feel sorry for me."
Also another article in the Chron has some nice info on the friction between Chris Bell and Tom Reiser. Apparently, the insurance company that Reiser once owned has sued to prevent Bell from airing a few ads. Interesting. And to think, all this fun ends (more or less) on Tuesday.