Dream Team Fallout
HoustonChronicle.com - Democrats' plan to target minorities wobbles
The Chron is reporting some facts on the Dems Dream Team results in Texas. The Kirk campaign gets a little favorable press for their efforts, but the Sanchez campaign, not surprisingly, is noted as a bumbling wreck. 170,127 new voters registered with hispanic surnames. Even if that net amount went 100% for Dems it wouldn't be enough. It's duly noted that new registrants in several more Republican counties outnumber those in more hispanic counties.
Invariably in elections, this sort of thing happens. I'm thinking back to when Jesse Jackson went into North Carolina many moons ago to drive up the voter registration among blacks, and also served to drive up voter registration among whites who were scared to death that Jesse Jackson was running for Senate there. Nothing happens in a vacuum.
Nevertheless, given Sanchez' investment in voter registration, this has to be considered a bust. He's also spent a fair amount of jack on voter education in the Valley, so that's the only card he's got left in his hand. Hispanic candidates always poll well, regardless. Go back to Vic Morales v Phil Gramm ... Morales got 45% by spending little more than gas money for his truck. Will the Sanchez campaign get that same floor? We'll see.
Numbers noted in the article mention that the record for Hispanic turnout in a Texas election is 17.5% in 1996. A Perry pollster also notes that it was 17% with Dan Morales on the ballot in 1994. The level it would have to reach for Sanchez et all to see some dividends would be about 23%. Likely? ... no. Possible? ... even that's a reach.
I've said it from day one, I'll say it again ... the one candidate to gain the most from the Dream Team ticket is John Sharp. I'm still thinking he polls highest among Dems this year, and whether that's enough to win or not, we'll see.