GregsOpinion.com

I honestly think Kirk is in the wrong race. From what I hear he's very competent, but that doesn't matter in a senator. Ideology does. That's one reason why the Senate turned Republican long before the statewide offices did.

My predictions will be posted soon.

Whitlock

Wait a minite... The description says: "In the Texas Senate race, John Cornyn's (R) lead over Ron Kirk (D) is shrinking and now stands at 45 to 37 percent."

To my knowledge, Cornyn has NEVER been leading Kirk by eight points before. The last poll I saw showed him at six points ahead, and before that, five points. Prior to those polls, the race was a statistical dead heat. Since when has Cornyn's lead been shrinking? It's been expanding for as long as I can remember, and this poll simply reiterates that impression.

As for Kirk's chances, he doesn't strike me as awfully capable. His gaffes of late were the actions of a policial novice who knows nothing about statewide politics.

It's based on Zogby's tracking polls, not based on separate polls that may or may not be based on the same assumptions.

I don't trust Zogby's state polling myself... He had Bush up 12 points in California only a couple of weeks before the 2000 election.

I agree more or less ... he does a better job on national polling where the demographic assumptions are much more generalized. Murray & Stein are pretty much the only reliable polls I look at in Texas.

Then again ... if Zogby is off here as much as he was in CA, maybe I won't mind the error on his part ;-)

Never mind - I remembered incorrectly. Zogby had the race dead even in CA, and then Bush lost the state by 12 points. Still, that's pretty far off, even with the undecided voters.